Thursday, October 25, 2007

Let's look at a high flier VDSI

Let's look at VASCO Data Security VDSI, one of my holdings. Quarterly results were announced today. Earnings were up 78%, revenues were up 60%, and the stock was down 34% on the day. I'm almost back to where I started on this one. I haven't read the conference call transcript yet, but apparently the business seems to be slowing a bit.

I guess best I can do is shrug my shoulders, but this is an extreme case of how the market trades on expectations and the wide fluctuations companies like this can see. These hyper-growth stocks are difficult to value, but I think even 35% sustainable revenue growth with sustainable margins (which have been expanding) makes this company attractive.

My rule is not to immediately buy after a big spike down like this, but I'll keep on my radar for potential adds. I like the company and it feels oversold, but I'm learning to listen to what the market tells me and let the air clear.

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