Crazy - This is Classic

Crazy - The Studio Recording Session.

Red Velvet Ant (Wasp)

I saw a Red Velvet Ant outside today while I was mowing. First time I think I've ever seen one in nature. Here are some good picture's I found on the web.

Pic1
Pic 2
Pics 3 and 4

Turns out it's actually a female wingless wasp - and known to have a powerful sting giving it it's alternate name of "Cow Killer."

Simpson's

I'm not a Simpson's fan, but I understand there's a movie out and it's doing great. I came across this impressive video of the Simpson's theme music.

Firestone

I'm curious. Have you ever dropped your vehicle off at a Firestone Service Center and not had them recommend significant additional work?

Last year when I purchased new tires they recommended over $1000 of additional work on axles/struts/or something.

Today I wanted an oil change and tire rotation. They recommended additionally I replace the serpentine belt.

I don't trust them farther than I can throw them, but is this standard operating procedure?

I have some local guys at a gas station that normally work on my vehicle (excellent work) who tell me for the most part "if it ain't broke don't fix it." Even though they're not a tire place I'm wishing I would've just purchased my new tires from them so I don't have to deal with all the up-sell every time I take advantage of the free tire rotations from Firestone. Advice is useless if I can't trust the folks giving it.

Transactions Today

Down markets seem like a good place to weed out some losers and move money into some different places, so made a couple adjustments today.

I sold the Palomar Medical Tech (PMTI) in my taxable accounts today to take tax loss. Still have some in another account, but will re-evaluate after 30 days.

Moved funds into a position in Immucor (BLUD). They had strong earnings announcement last week and I like the company characteristics in general. Also considered putting into CTSH Cognizant, but held off there.

I almost bought a big chunk of the general market Nasdaq Index QQQQ, but decided I'll stay with companies instead of the index for now while I'm research the general market trading system.

Working on trading strategies

A short while back I was studying the beneficial impact of buying on down days and that got me to thinking about trading strategies in general - something I've never given serious thought.

This weekend I've put in a lot of effort working on a trading system - trying to see if I can come up with an automated trading system that can outperform the market.

I'm still working on it and I'm thinking "maybe" it's possible, but it seems to be much more doable in sideways or downward moving markets like 2000-2003. When I transition the strategies that work into more bullish environments, it's tough to beat a strictly buy and hold approach. By this I mean the models are decent at making money in bad markets and picking decent exit/re-entry points, but aren't as good at staying in in good markets. Market timing in bull markets seems somewhat counter-productive unless highly productive and timely sells can be targeted.

I'm trying to build logic to improve performance in bull markets, but it's tougher than it seems it should be at first glance.

Time for a test

A slight variation of this trading strategy discussed a short while back is giving a buy sign right now.

I'm curious to see the outcome. Current status of SPY - the exchange traded index of the S&P500:
- Down Day
- Down market trend vs both 20day and 40day intervals
- 4 or more of last 7 trading days have closed down
- Sentiment indicator Neutral

In the 40 instances the market has had this setup since 2004, after 4 days the SPY has closed up 83% of the time, with an average gain of 1.32%. SPY is at 148.02 in after hours trading right now. Lets see if closes next Thursday up from this point, and by how much. I'm unsure if there are any dividends between here and there, but if so we'll adjust the prices to account for them.

Still investigating how to get the leverage to make these types of expected moves play out, but it's interesting to think about.

By the way...

Did you hear that my wife sold her first book the other day?

Congratulations!

Ouch

Ouch. Palomar Tech's earnings announcement apparently disappointed big time today. I haven't had a chance to look into detail yet, but this is a small thinly traded stock, so it can move big when pushed. There was a special one-time royalty earned last year that also complicates year over year comparisons. At first blush the report doesn't look like it should've triggered such a bad reaction, but there could be something else there.

At least most of mine is in a taxable account...

Interesting Articles today

1. Your friends can make you fat.

2. Better student achievement in rural schools. Note the comment about less money spent per student but smaller schools and more people know each other vs. bigger city schools.

3. And this was an interesting video find from Stars' Reflections blog. Pay attention

Iapetus - moon of Saturn

Take a look at this image of one of the moons of Saturn (named Iapetus) taken by Cassini back in Dec 2004.

The original hypotheses for the shape are discussed above, but scientists now think the odd shape persists because the moon was spinning extremely rapidly when it formed and "froze" into place and held ever since.

Contraptions

this a BMW advertisement, but check out the contraptions this guy (Theo Jansen) has built.

Keep an eye out

Here's an interesting article warning to be wary of financial planners, with some discussion of the messed up incentives in the business.

Here's an earlier post with similar warnings.

Observation from travels

I spent the last week traveling through Louisiana. New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and Lake Charles

Some observations
1. The water in Baton Rouge tastes terrible and won't get the soap off.
2. There's a Conoco gas station somewhere on I-10 with a Tiger Cage, lots of broken gas pumps, a bathroom with a door that doesn't close, and lots of graffiti. A friend I was traveling with said the station has character - along with other notable diseases such as hepatitis.
3. They eat a lot of seafood in Louisiana. Raw oysters seem to be everyone's favorite.
4. Lafayette LA is pronounced "laugh a yet". I mispronounced it in one of the meetings and had to explain the different pronunciations in Kentucky "Lah fay yet" and Tennessee "Luh fay yet" with the emphasis on the second syllable.
5. I-10 may be the longest stretch of elevated inter-state I've ever been on - like driving on a never ending bridge. It's all swamp underneath.