Friday, October 5, 2012

Made a Move Back into the Market

This might be bad news. I've been out of sync with things going on in the stock market for a while which caused me to lighten up this spring, so I'm probably a contrarian indicator for what it's worth, but I made a move today to increase my market exposure today.

 This moves me up to about 70-75% market exposure from well below 50% where I was previously. Again, this is probably a sign of impending apocalypse, but here's what I did:

Moved retirement accounts into
- S&P 500 index,
- Russell index,
- and Intn'l Index.

Purchased half positions in
- INTC Intel
- CMI Cummins
- CSTR Coinstar
- CF CF Industries
- NEU Newmarket

I've had position in INTC and NEU before, so I'm back exposed there.

Everybody probably knows Intel's business, but main thinking here is how they're finished building new facilities giving them a big tech lead going forward on most other chip vendors out there (they're not just PC chips anymore), and they do pay a 4% dividend which is nice. The big concern is global PC demand. Opportunity is getting more chips into so many other devices - including possibly more chips in Apples devices given Apple's fight with Samsung.

Newmarket makes petroleum additives. No real big ideas here other than I like it's numbers and it looks like a solid long term growth story. This is a growth story - dividend is only 1.2%, but it helps.

Cummins is one that I've had my eye on for a long time. They make heavy duty engines for trucks and equimpent. Cyclicals have burned me in the past, but I'm giving it another shot. 2.2% dividend here. Many like Boone Pickens think Natural Gas engines are an opportunity in trucking, and Cummins will be a player here. Also - I just like their numbers. They're a cyclical and it scares me some because they can be volatile, but I'll go with it here.

Coinstar owns the Red Box business. Alot of folks think they've had their one big idea and there's nothing more to get out of the business. To me, they seem like a cash generating machine and as long as management doesn't pursue bad ideas they should be fine because of all the cash being thrown off by DVD rental. I don't expect that business to fall off as quickly as others expect, and even with possible price increases it's pretty cheap entertainment. I hear they're maybe going to put out automated coffee machines next, and I hope they don't just try to grow for growths sake, but instead keep an eye on rates of return - but that'll have to play out. I really wish they'd pay a dividend (they don't right now) as I worry they might be tempted otherwise to plow all the excess cash into possible bad ideas, but maybe that's coming.

CF Industries is another company I've been watching for a long time. They're a chemical company that makes fertilizers. I understand low natural gas prices help financials for these type companies alot, so rising natural gas prices would be bad. I have no insight on the issue but have watched the natural gas glut for years and it shows no signs of abating. New techs seem to allow access to a whole lot of new gas deposits they previously just couldn't get to.  0.7% dividend.

That's about it. Put on your hardhat now because me buying might be the sign you were looking for to run for the hills.

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